The Business of Geopolitics in the Caribbean

[dropcap]I[/dropcap]n recent weeks The STAR Businessweek has covered the relationship between Brazil and the Caribbean. Brazil’s economy is so big that its performance impacts not only its national progress, but that of South America as a whole.

That’s Brazil, and it is a sizeable stand-alone entity in our region and globally.

But Brazil is also a core part of BRICS, the association of five emerging marketpowerhouses, with Russia, India, China, and South Africa, like Brazil, possessing a robust GDP at home, and the capacity to project economic power abroad. BRICS has shared goals, but not necessarily shared consensus about achieving them.

Just as Brazil is an important trading partner to many Caribbean nations, so do the other members of BRICS carry much economic sway for our future. So, what does Brazil’s relationship with BRICS mean for our region? And what other factors impact our region’s relationship with the BRICS nations?

WHAT BRICS SEEKS TO BUILD

To understand the future of Brazil and BRICS for our region, it’s essential to first define the most important dynamics of the parties in our region. The five BRICS nations share an interest in creating a new economic order in the world.

There are broad strokes to this – Russia and China may aspire to actively challenge the economic power of the US and Europe whereas Brazil and India may prefer consensus-driven reform as opposed to remaking the world anew – but ultimately each nation sees in its four fellow BRICS members willing partners in a campaign for change.

The BRICS bloc also has a fair claim to seek change. Together, the five nations account for 26% of the world’s land mass and almost 50% of its population. By any measure, the BRICS nations have the size, population and projected growth to stake a claim for greater global influence in the years ahead. This notwithstanding, there remain tensions here.

China and India share much in common as nations with sizeable territories, huge populations of over 1 billion citizens and a shared recognition that the economic promise of their future has followed after a difficult period of unwanted foreign rule. In many respects, their stories mirror that of many Caribbean nations. Yet India and China also have intrinsic and growing tensions.

While there are shades of grey in each system, India is ultimately celebrated as the world’s biggest democracy, whereas the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) authoritarian rule is regularly condemned by democratic activists and human rights campaigners. Recent military tensions over Beijing’s South China Sea exploits and creation of artificial islands for territorial claim have rapidly grown the divide.

IN OUR NEIGHBOURHOOD

This strained dynamic is also apparent with Brazil and BRICS in our region. Unquestionably, Brazil holds an advantage over other BRICS nations in pursuing growth and trade in the Caribbean. There is a common history of navigating colonialism and independence in the New World, and economically there’s the advantage of proximity relative to more distant BRICS members.

There’s also the language factor. Though Brazil is Latin America’s sole predominantly Portuguese-speaking nation, its population and economy is so big that it sees Portuguese accompany Spanish and Guarani as the official languages of  Mercosur, the South American trading bloc. This is a key example of Brazil’s national economic power, and as a leader of South American trade more widely, as South America can go ‘all in’ for Brazil.

Put simply, with these advantages in place, Brazil aspires to a world where its leverage sees BRICS grow to its benefit, but not to the detriment of its direct interests closer to home.

Like China and India, recognising Brazil’s relationship with its neighbours is essential to identify the influence and opportunities available in a BRICS-Caribbean relationship. But the advantages forged over time are not without new complications in 2018.

LOOKING NORTH TO NAFTA

In recent times a new dynamic has also entered the fray, one that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. The ascent of Donald Trump to the Oval Office came with a promise to put ‘America First’ and revisit ‘bad deals’. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been central to this.

Like Brazil, the proximity of the US, Canada and Mexico to the Caribbean means NAFTA’s three members will always have strong and enduring ties to our region. But ties can remain strong and enduring without actually growing. They can also pivot in new directions and reset old relationships.

Just as Brexit has seen Canada recalculate its relationship with the EU and UK, so would a Trump-driven end to NAFTA see Mexico turn from its North American partners to pursue new trade in Latin America, and potentially with China.

Like Brexit, the implications of an end of NAFTA would go beyond the term of a single politician and, instead, be a change that would dramatically alter (for better or worse) the fortunes of a generation.

In effect since 1994, the impact of any variation or end to an agreement that has an annual output of US$17 trillion could have a gargantuan effect immediately, and add a new stumbling block to trade throughout the Americas.

It’s true that ‘a week is a long time in politics’ but economics within the realm of geopolitics usually proceeds at a slower pace. New relations being sought, negotiations held and ultimately trade deals signed, takes time, usually years. That’s why the relative speed of events in Beijing’s resurgent campaign for diplomatic recognition in the Caribbean, the prospect of Mexico’s withdrawal from NAFTA, and the political blowback via the EU from the Paradise and Panama Paper leaks affirm we are in extraordinary times.

The current BRICS chapter is another example of the Caribbean having seen itself confirmed as an epicentre of global currents.

THE ROAD AHEAD

At its core, this era is a story of blocs: BRICS, Mercosur, the EU, NAFTA. The challenge for the people of the Caribbean is how to seize upon the opportunities while avoiding being pulled into the geopolitics at play beyond it.

With so many of our nations still very young in the story of their independence, relationships that grow national trade and our regional identity are important. Our region also has no aspiration to revisit great power struggles of the Cold War.

Given the number of interested parties, ensuring that others don’t seek to chart our path is best done by the decisive pursuit of our own. At its heart, seizing upon the offerings of BRICS will ask us to envision what a comparable Caribbean bloc may look like.

The stroke of a pen won’t see such a bloc made overnight, and it’s true that recent episodes in North America and the EU have shown the difficulty of regional political coalitions. But this idea is gaining new momentum in the digital era whereas old challenges of communication and logistics are shrinking.

The work of CARICOM and the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States has shown the foundations for a new step forward here. Our region is a young one, still building a clear sense of regional identity that tells the story of who we are and what we can do that no others can.

While great powers in BRICS and trading partners in NAFTA ponder the future of their engagement in our region amidst their own discord‚ the Caribbean can seek to define and grow what our region embodies in the era of blocs.

We just need to do it brick by brick.