Can A New President Help Guatemala Turn the Page?

On August 11 Guatemalans will take part in the final stage of the nation’s presidential election. Sandra Torres of the centre-left National Unity of Hope Party (UNE) and Alejandro Giammattei of the conservative Let’s Go (VAMOS) will face off, having progressed past the first round of voting on June 16, in which no candidate in the field of 19 was able to command a majority.

While Guatemalans look to the future and hope a new president will see the nation turn the page, this will be an election deeply informed by the past. Recent years have seen a corruption scandal engulfing the political elite so there is some doubt that current presidential candidates can offer a true path forward.

So what would a Torres or Giammattei presidency mean for Guatemala? And can it really be any different this time round for an electorate seeking a presidency that’s a circuit breaker?

GUATEMALA AT HOME AND ABROAD

The future of Guatemala is important not only for its citizens but for those of Latin America. The nation is something of a bellwether to regional trends. As the most populous country in Central America, and with a GDP that is around the average for Latin America (including the Caribbean), the highs and lows that Guatemala experiences from one year and decade to the next can be indicative of broader triumphs and challenges in the region. Unfortunately, in 2019 Guatemala is facing a time of trial.

The civil war in Guatemala ended in 1996. Today the country has a population (allowing for a variance due to emigration) of around 17.5 million. Since the late 1990s there has been the potential for the country to draw foreign investment but this hasn’t been successful in bridging the gap between rich and poor. As this recent electoral cycle has shown, the most pressing financial issues are the problem of money at home and the massive corruption scandal.

THREE WOES FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT

The next president of Guatemala will need to contend with three priority issues: gang violence, mass emigration and alleged corruption at the highest levels. Individually, each could pose a major threat to the stability of a nation but, collectively, they represent a political nightmare. 

Gang violence and the lack of economic opportunity have seen many Guatemalans flee the country. Their representation in the illegal immigrant debate in the United States has proven to be a particularly fractious foreign policy issue beyond Guatemalan shores.

While diversity is a good thing in democracy, too much of it can mean a potential fracture in a major party, or within the political system generally. A global example of this is seen in the US, with the Democrats’ 2020 presidential candidates. At present there are around 20 (the exact number is fluid as some candidates at the back of the pack can drop out at a moment’s notice), and feasibly five to ten of them with a real shot at the 2020 nomination. For Democrats this is an ‘embarrassment of riches’, given that there is obviously much talent in the party, but it also signifies an absence of party consensus.

In Guatemala an absence of consensus has been seen in the elections on the subject of migration. Among the 19 candidates for president, there was a huge variety of proposals to address the problem, meaning that whatever proposal either Torres or Giammattei puts forward, there will be resistance waiting in the wings.

Then there is the ongoing scandal surrounding the political elite, including current president Jimmy Morales, that arose as a result of findings from the UN International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (aka the CICIG). It reached crisis point in Morales’ term in September 2018; the president had previously been a supporter of the CICIG’s work but when they began investigating him, he indicated he would not renew the group’s mandate which is set to expire in September of this year.

CONTINUITY OR CHANGE?

Jimmy Morales himself has been facing backlash for the corruption scandal but his successor will have to take office mindful that the corruption challenge isn’t confined to individuals; it is seen as a system and nationwide issue. The next president will have to decide how to proceed with the CICIG. Presently, both Torres and Giammattei oppose the CICIG’s ongoing presence in their nation.

While there is no suggestion from this writer that Torres or Giammattei is corrupt, as the New York Times detailed last month, both have been accused of corruption. For voters seeking a new beginning, both candidates’ position on the CICIG, combined with the cloud hanging over them, is sure to stifle political momentum. Regardless of who wins, the new president will arrive in office having to reclaim that momentum.

REAL LEADERSHIP 

THAT’S REALLY NEEDED

This has been a turbulent year for Guatemala. The elections have raised questions of national identity and existential crises far beyond the political norm, such as gang violence, mass emigration and alleged corruption at the highest levels, all matters that threaten the future foundations of the state. It has meant — rare in a presidential election — that the broader policies each candidate holds for the future of the country and its economy have often taken a backseat. These crises are substantial, so it’s understandable.

 Any individual who runs for president must be ready to risk history’s turn on whether they will leave office with acclaim or condemnation. The next president of Guatemala is likely to become hugely consequential in the nation’s history, for better or worse.