Did the Coronavirus Expose the risks of CBI?

The emergence of the coronavirus in early January of this year has created immense anxiety globally, wreaked havoc on the tourism industry and driven home the immense difficulty for national governments in seeking to combat a threat within the modern international community. Just as Bill Gates (whose Gates Foundation has donated billions to health initiatives) calls the coronavirus a ‘once in a century’ pathogen, so too does it represent a landmark moment in the history of CBI programmes. Caribbean nations engaged in the business of selling economic citizenship or residency by investment may benefit because domestic instability elsewhere tends to be a stalking horse for increased interest in Caribbean CBI products. But in this case, the coronavirus is a double-edged sword.

The Coronavirus Spread Continues

In recent days and weeks the coronavirus has continued to spread into new nations within the Americas and beyond. What’s more, deaths have also been recorded for the first time in the USA, Thailand and Australia. Even though regional nations have applied a strict approach to the virus, such as in late February when several Caribbean islands refused entry to cruise ships, many suspect it is ‘just a matter of time’ before multiple countries in the region have outbreaks. At the time of writing, the Dominican Republic has reported its first confirmed case of the virus.

Simply Stating the Facts

When making any assessment of this issue, one must first acknowledge some simple truths. It is a fact that the Chinese have long been the leading nationality in the region’s CBI market. Suppose, for a moment, that in a country of 1.4 billion people, if even just 0.01 per cent of its population were to become Eastern Caribbean economic citizens, that would mean an additional 140,000 new passports being issued. Unfortunately, figures are unavailable for the total number of Eastern Caribbean economic citizens created since the inception of these programmes.

Describing the increased interest that Caribbean CBI programmes are receiving due to coronavirus anxiety, CS Global Partners, a CBI marketing firm, stated: “Our office in China, in particular, is reporting that one of the main reasons Chinese applicants are seeking to obtain citizenship by investment now more than ever before is to get their families to safety and security fast.”

According to official government data, Chinese nationals reportedly made up 19 per cent of Saint Lucian applications during the 2017-2018 fiscal year, accounted for 42 per cent of applications received by Grenada from January to June in 2017 and represented an estimated 98 per cent of applications in Grenada from January to April 2018.

Appealing to All Citizens

For nations that maintain CBI programmes, there are difficult considerations ahead. It is clear that the coronavirus will drive new interest from the Chinese in the investment migration sector, and possibly from other nationalities, but can this demand be met in a way that is secure and sustainable?

Ultimately, this is not just a challenge surrounding Chinese economic citizens, but economic citizens from countries around the world. As the World Health Organization explains, our vulnerability “is heightened by an increase in outbreaks occurring in complex humanitarian emergencies, as well as a novel convergence of ecological, political, economic and social trends including population growth, increased urbanization, a globally integrated economy, widespread and faster travel, conflict, migration and climate change”.

If a Caribbean state positions itself to capitalise on new demand then the profits will surely flow, but it must also be ready for a situation where if a future crisis arises suddenly, a significant number of its citizens abroad may desire to permanently relocate.