El Salvador’s new leader, President Nayib Bukele, took office on June 1, 2019 with a promise to bring real change. The youthful 37-year-old entrepreneur and former mayor of El Salvador’s capital city San Salvador succeeded the baby boomer-born former president Salvador Sánchez Cerén, who himself succeeded fellow baby boomer Mauricio Funes. The last month has shown that this new president is indeed a sharp contrast from his predecessors.
Having leaned heavily on social media to drive his campaign for the presidency, in office President Bukele has continued to cultivate a reputation for doing things differently. But while El Salvador’s new head of state has undoubtedly brought a new dynamism to the presidency, many of the nation’s biggest problems are old and enduring. So can President Bukele make good on his promise to bring real change? And what does the world beyond El Salvador need to know about the new leader of 6.4 million Salvadorans?
The Energy to Deliver Change
Since the end of civil war hostilities in 1992, El Salvador has looked to write a new chapter. Despite this, it retains one of the highest homicide rates in the world, and has an ongoing nationwide problem of criminal gang activity, with total gang membership estimated to be 70,000.
Bukele has come to office promising to drive down the murder rate and has indicated there will be no negotiations with gangs. Instead of relying on old-fashioned policing alone, Bukele has signalled that he will eradicate gang activity by stifling their economic resources. But just as gang activity is contributing to so many Salvadorans seeking refuge elsewhere throughout the region, Bukele must also find a formula to incentivize a return to their homeland, and Central America’s fourth largest economy.
Though recent years have seen El Salvador endure economic stagnation, the nation’s energy sector has been a ray of sunshine amidst the storm clouds. As of December 2018, renewable energies came in at over 60% of the country’s total energy generation. Further growth remains promising too, with French renewable energy producer Neoen financing a 141MW solar power and storage project set to be operational in early 2020.
However, the jobs gained in this emerging sector, and more widely in the nation’s service industry — which accounts for around 64% of the economy — stand alongside the underpowered tourism industry and losses being seen in the agriculture sector.
This is an era of transition for El Salvador. Other countries around the region have seen their economies successfully diversify from being primarily agrarian-based. A decline in the homicide rate and drop in gang activity would also help drive up tourism numbers.
Bukele should certainly be granted a window of time before his record is assessed (political scientists commonly cite 90 to 100 days as a key period for a new leader to make substantial change) but his campaign ran on relatively vague promises and sparse policy detail. This means that the outsider status that propelled him into the presidency will also see his current supporters turn away if he fails to deliver. Likewise, his capacity to be a strong agent of change will stall if his current momentum isn’t maintained.
Time is of the Essence
Alongside his domestic priorities, Bukele is keenly aware that his ascent will prompt a new look at his nation by many outside it. With concerns having been expressed about extra-judicial killings by law enforcement officers that allegedly occurred in previous years, he has already pledged to NGO Amnesty International that human rights will be respected by his government.
Beyond promises, and in concrete foreign policy action, Bukele’s relationship with the US will be critical. Bukele and President Donald Trump share a conservative outlook, an anti-establishment brand, and a renowned love of using Twitter for public dialogue. On a surface level there’s much common ground between the two leaders, but the relationship could turn fractious on account of high Salvadoran migration rates to the US. Bukele is choosing to focus on economic reforms and on measures with private sector partnerships to alleviate poverty, diminish instability and drive down the departure rate, abstaining from the use of more hardline measures available to him via law enforcement and the military.
Right now this approach is consistent with the pledge to Amnesty, and it may yet bear fruit, but if the near future shows no change, renewed pressure at home on Bukele will surely be met by enhanced tensions with the White House as Trump gears up for a re-election campaign, needing to win back voters who feel he failed on his promise of a hardline immigration stance.
Counting the Days
Bukele’s youth should not be a defining factor of his presidency. As he and his team will know, youth by itself is not a guarantee of innovative thinking, just as greater years do not always ensure more wisdom. But the ascent of El Salvador’s newest leader comes at a time when many countries are seeing a generational gulf open up between national candidates.
The most prominent example of this is the US Democratic Party primaries for the presidential election of 2020. The oldest major candidate is Bernie Sanders who, at 77, is close to double the age of the youngest major candidate, Pete Buttigieg who is 37 years old. Other major candidates, like Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard, alongside current Republican leader and president Donald Trump, further enhance this divide by being either under 40 or over 70.
The age of leaders alone isn’t important, but the policies they craft and how they appeal to voters is. Unsurprisingly, newer additions to the national stage more readily carve out unique paths to capture a greater audience. Bukele grabbed attention and won an election very effectively, via a platform that older leaders may have found harder to use without looking stiff and insincere. But even if advanced age isn’t a guarantee of wisdom, it is a sign of experience; and all things being equal, the relationship between experience and acquired wisdom is strong.
Bukele now has a place in El Salvador’s history books for running an innovative campaign. Unable to rely on years of governing experience, the challenge ahead is for him to pursue such innovation while in office. This will be key to success with his agenda, even if experience shows that achieving it will be hard.
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