The forthcoming months of 2020 will be a busy period for Caribbean elections. A number of these polls are ones where it will not be ‘business as usual’, given the profound changes in circumstances that have occurred between upcoming votes, and those cast prior. Here are five Caribbean elections to watch in 2020.
1. Guyana: March 2
IMF projections in November 2019 indicated Guyana’s economy as set to grow a colossal 86 per cent during 2020 as a result of its newfound oil wealth. In this regard, the election on March 2 would already hold a ‘once in a generation’ significance for Guyanese. But given the political turbulence in the lead-up to this date – with the Trinidad-based Caribbean Court of Justice in June 2019 ruling to uphold an earlier vote of no confidence in the government, adding a dramatic international component to the process – the majority in the nation hope to turn the page with this poll. So can it happen?
Although elections are unpredictable at the best of times, beyond Guyana’s recent political volatility there are new dynamics emerging that will make this election unlike any before. The support of Amerindian minority tribes as a voting bloc is expected to play an important role. This means that whoever wins must have an eye not only on the future, but also on the past by offering policies that meaningfully rectify enduring issues of disadvantage in the tribal community.
2. Suriname: May 31 (date not confirmed)
Although Suriname’s electoral process is regarded as a reasonably good one – with a 2019 assessment by Freedom House giving it full marks – the country is embattled by corruption and nepotism. Accordingly, the real test for Suriname after the election will be how effectively it stewards the nation’s newfound oil wealth. Even if the the population expects to enjoy immense affluence as a result of the oil discovery, there could ultimately be a missed opportunity if broader governance issues go unaddressed.
3. The Dominican Republic: May 17
Among the Caribbean’s largest nations, with a population in excess of 10 million, the Dominican Republic has recorded strong economic growth in recent years, placing it among the fastest growing economies globally.
The lead-up to the national election on May 17 is likely to be tense. In the municipal elections held earlier this month, voting was halted due a software ‘glitch’ and outraged Dominicans took to the streets in protest, at home and abroad, with the New York protest alone drawing thousands of Dominican expats. Reportedly, the glitch resulted in many opposition candidates being omitted from the digital ballot, while members of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) still featured. Thus, this upcoming national election will test not only the candidates, but also those working to secure a strong and fair process.
4. St. Kitts AND Nevis: To Be Called
Over its past term the government of St Kitts and Nevis has won some commendable headlines, notably for its partnership with Leclanché in building the largest solar project in the Caribbean. Prime Minister Timothy Harris will want to convince the nation that a vote for his party promises sunshine and clear skies across the board, despite the shadows of the 2019 CIP scandal still fresh in the mind of many voters. Should opposition leader Dr. Denzil Douglas win, the world’s oldest CIP could be placed under new scrutiny owing to Douglas’ prior critique of the incumbent government’s management of the investment migration scheme. However, Douglas has himself been criticised by Harris for his management of the CIP when the former was previously PM, so both sides will give no quarter once the campaign officially commences.
5. Trinidad and Tobago: To Be Called
Prime Minister Keith Rowley will be citing endeavours in the renewable energy sector, both at home and in his desire for the nation to be a regional eco-leader, as a key element of his government’s story. While this could convince voters that he’s an innovator and forward-thinking leader, water shortages and the unemployment rate (4.7 per cent as of October 2019, according to the IMF) mean the United National Congress led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be making the case that it can do a better job on these bread and butter issues.
Winning Popular Support
These upcoming Caribbean elections will provide an insight not only into these voting nations, but the ebbs and flows across the region as a whole. Given that many political issues are shared across borders throughout the region, even residents of nations who are not set to go the polls this year will find in these elections potential takeaways when it comes to voter moods and perspectives.
In turn, the outcome of elections in Guyana and Suriname could be particularly consequential for the precise path that each nation seeks to pursue in its oil-rich future; one that we discuss in depth within our accompanying STAR Businessweek piece on Green Energy Tensions in the Caribbean.
