The dispute between Venezuela and Guyana surrounding ownership of the Esequiba territory traces its origin back centuries. Like so many territorial disputes around the world, the quarrel between Caracas and Georgetown is one that not only impacts the day-to-day life of these two nations, but neighbouring states too.
2019 sees this dispute viewed through a new lens, as both the Venezuelans and Guyanese have had momentous chapters written in their histories over the past year. So what is the latest surrounding this territorial dispute? Let’s look in-depth now.
The New Dynamics of the Dispute
Anyone who follows closely the Esequiba dispute knows that it’s one that is both ongoing and relatively uneventful although in recent years and months the dynamics have fundamentally altered and ‘old certainties’ can no longer be relied upon.
Guyana’s discovery of massive oil reserves in 2015 has changed both the nation’s future and its relationship with its neighbour, Venezuela. For years, Caracas has looked to frustrate the efforts of Georgetown to develop its offshore oil industry in the disputed territorial waters, doing so as ExxonMobil’s 2015 exploration returned a conservative estimate of 4 billion barrels residing in the Stabroek Block owned by Guyana.
In December 2018 the latest chapter in the conflict kicked off when two ExxonMobil ships, searching with Guyana’s permission, were confronted by the Venezuelan Navy. While the incident was resolved without hostilities, questions remain as to whether future private vessels operating in partnership with the Guyanese government will receive naval protection as they carry out their duties, considerably raising the risk of a skirmish should Venezuela’s navy arrive on the scene.
The risk of greater conflict is also higher given the unique position in which both sides find themselves in relation to their history. Guyana, with a population of around 800,000, now has a voice as a newly oil-rich nation, officially backed by Washington DC. Conversely, Venezuela has weakened; it is a country of some 30 million people facing a major national and humanitarian crisis. In spite of international recognition of Venezuelan congress head Juan Guaido as interim president, President Nicolas Maduro has proven to be ready to raise tensions in order to maintain his grip on power.
No observer wishes for conflict to grow but, as the relative fortunes of both nations have changed drastically, the old dynamics have clearly evolved with much unpredictability and uncertainty.
A Common Voice in Venezuela
This fate of Esequiba is a rare issue that has united Venezuelan leaders across the political divide. The ExxonMobil incident saw President Nicolas Maduro briefly embrace the National Assembly led by the opposition. But this unity can only progress their claim so far. The reality is that the Venezuelan leadership — whomever you deem in the nation’s group of leaders to rightfully hold that title — is struggling with the simple day-to-day operations of the state. As a result, Caracas is in no position to develop oil fields as Guyana has been doing. Further, Venezuela’s reticence towards the International Court of Justice’s involvement in seeking to resolve the dispute during mid-2018 saw further political capital ebb from Caracas.
Yet this issue is also unquestionably one of civic pride and history for Venezuela and, given its origins in the colonial period, any movement that alters the status quo is fraught with sensitivity and risk.
Regional leadership and diplomacy
For varying reasons, neither Caracas nor Georgetown may have an interest to progress beyond the current dynamic at the moment, but the evolution of broader circumstances demands it. This applies to all nations in the region, each having a shared stake and responsibility in seeing that territorial disputes are resolved amicably, especially in an era when great power politics has once again reared its head.
Recent years have seen leaders in Beijing, Moscow and elsewhere advance strategic territorial claims along their borders on the basis of ‘might makes right’. In this instance, there’s a US factor to consider: Guyana enjoys support from Washington, and relations between Caracas and Washington — already long soured — have sunk further under Trump. The shift in US position in November 2018, from supporting “the timely resolution of the Venezuela-Guyana border controversy” to now calling “on all parties to respect the 1899 arbitration decision”, may clarify publicly a position many suspected the Trump administration held privately, but risks being seen by Venezuelans as ‘kicking them while they’re down’.
It’s here that Guyana holds a special responsibility and self-interest, given that the current crisis faced by Venezuela is increasingly permeating borders around the region.
The Personal Cost
A UN report in late 2018 highlighted that over 3 million Venezuelans have left the country in the last few years. This crisis has brought immense upheaval to the lives of the Venezuelan people and has placed considerable pressure on neighbouring nations, in Guyana’s case, flaring tensions on its western border.
For years the Guyanese border town of Whitewater was regarded as so many border towns are: one that sees illegal activity, by virtue of its location, but does so with a certain stability. Many Venezuelans, seeking to leave, would discreetly go east, and some Guyanese would cross west, in search of work in Venezuelan gold mines, but with much predictability surrounding the comings and goings.
This huge exodus of so many Venezuelans has changed this, and shone a light on the activities of sindicato gangs that have long terrorised miners and residents in the region, and found new ways for their criminal activity to thrive in this current crisis. The episodes in and around Whitewater are illustrative of a critical truth: that this dispute cannot simply be regarded as an old historical disagreement or symbolic issue for bureaucrats in national capitals to bicker about. It is instead one that continues to have a direct impact on the lives and wellbeing of citizens in both nations.
The next chapter in this story may not yet be clear, but clearly work now must begin on writing it.
