The British Virgin Islands government led by Premier Andrew Fahie has completed 100 days in office over the past week. The new premier, sworn in by Governor Augustus Jaspert in February, has led a nation’s government and political life through a little over three months of political twists and turns in the country’s capital of Road Town.
The fates and fortunes of the new BVI government are not just important for Virgin Islanders, but also for the Caribbean family as a whole, owing to the territory’s history and governance that are deeply interwoven into the region’s dynamic and outlook. That’s why a review of the recent history and what awaits the Fahie government is so worthwhile.
Why the FIRST 100 Days of a Government is Important
The first 90 to 100 days of a new democratically elected government has historically been seen as a crucial period. This is true whether it’s a new party taking office or one being re-elected. The reason this period is so important is due to several factors. Firstly, a government taking office will typically have at the term’s start the maximum political capital it will hold until the next election. Using the electoral victory as a cornerstone, a government’s early days will usually see it enact signature policies and election promises, with political protection provided by the fact the party won the election and has a mandate to act.
Secondly, at this time the opposition commonly offers little resistance. An electoral loss usually results in some upheaval and instability as the losing parties try to pick up the pieces. The opposition also recognises that the government is the team the voting public selected, and resistance over co-operation so early in the term can see an opposition party further damage its chance of returning to office the next time.
Finally, there’s the reality of governing fatigue. Early in a new term, government leaders are unlikely to face much resistance from their own party as there’s an electoral victory to celebrate, with cushy jobs on offer and no political scandals on the table likely to diminish re-election chances.
Once upon a time the first 100 days could go a long way to explaining how successful a government was likely to be across its whole term. However, with the Fahie government, a different calculation may be required due to domestic and global reasons.
New Government, Old Problems
Andrew Fahie’s government came to office with the promise it would bring change. Fahie’s Virgin Islands Party won eight seats in the 13-seat legislature. Within his own seat, Fahie won a resounding victory over rival candidates Stephanie Brewley and Sylvia Moses.
With the Virgin Islands having a historically prosperous and stable economy, the decisive change to Fahie is testament, in part, to his personal popularity. Such is Fahie’s connection with the general public that across his years in public life he’s acquired the popular nickname ‘the Brown Bomber’, first inspired by the legendary boxer Joe Louis.
Before winning office, Fahie indicated his support for a sweeping set of new initiatives, from a public register of interests for politicians and senior public servants, to campaign finance reform, freedom of information legislation, and more. It’s not surprising such initiatives take time to implement but Fahie will soon be held to account if he doesn’t make inroads, especially given that he himself cited a timetable of six months or less for starting the early passage of bills.
In the interim it needs to be recognised that much of the government’s political capital has been soaked up by the aftershocks of its electoral victory. Then there was the subsequent attempt to pass the Immigration and Passport (Amendment) Act 2019; and the resignation, then recantation, and then resignation once more of opposition legislator Mark Vanterpool, which set off a parliamentary crisis over procedure.
Building on a Budget
Economically, the British Virgin Islands face two key domestic challenges in forthcoming years. Firstly, the ongoing leveraging of the territory’s tourism industry, which makes up around 45% of its annual economic revenue. Secondly, diversification of its economy, so that if the good times end with tourism, there are other industries to rely on.
The Fahie government’s first budget — with its bills passed in April — is being described as a transitional one that will seek to carve a path for a more sustainable and secure Virgin Islands economy. The overall impact of this budget will take time to be seen, but so far it’s laid the general groundwork for a positive year ahead. Yet, there’ll also be the desire to avoid a setback at home due to factors abroad. In this regard, Road Town is now looking on with some nerves and trepidation at an issue far from the Virgin Islands which could still hit its economy hard.
Brexit and the British Virgin Islands
As with essentially every Caribbean nation that retains strong governing and economic links with the United Kingdom, the Virgin Islands are currently in a period of considerable uncertainty owing to the Brexit vote of June 2016, and the political fallout that’s since been seen in London. Although other nations, like Saint Lucia, could sustain economic aftershocks due to a hard Brexit or ‘bad deal’ between London and the EU, the Virgin Islands’ status as a British Overseas Territory — distinct from nations like Saint Lucia which are sovereign states — means that although the Virgin Islands aren’t part of the EU, its people are held to be EU citizens via the UK link.
With Brexit, the mid- and long-term impact of the final outcome between Brussels and London remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Fahie government must face the fact that the economic landscape of its nation could look very different once the next election rolls around, and all as a result of a dispute that raged far beyond its shores.
With Britain’s ruling Conservative Party set to elect a new prime minister, following Theresa May’s announcement on May 24 that she will resign, in the hope of breaking the Brexit deadlock before the revised departure date of October 31, 2019, it’s certain that just as the first 90 days were eventful, the next 90 days for the British Virgin Islands government will be a period to watch with keen interest.
