The Embassy of Brazil was not available to comment on newly-elected President Bolsonaro’s foreign relations strategy with the Caribbean region.
On New Year’s Day Jair Bolsonaro was sworn in as president of Brazil. The veteran congressman’s inauguration was not just an incredible moment in Latin America’s political history, given the story of Bolsonaro’s rise to the presidency, but also for his promise to bring change to the way in which the Brazilian government conducts its affairs at home and abroad.
Bolsonaro will lead Brazil into 2019 and the decade ahead with a strong right wing ethos unseen in Brazil’s modern history. In order to understand the opportunities that may be pursued for regional businesses during the Bolsonaro era, it’s essential to explore what this new leader means for South America’s biggest economy, Saint Lucia and wider Latin American.
Brazil in Statistics
When it comes to the power and economic influence of Brazil, many people in the Caribbean business community will hold a general understanding, aware that Brazil is the largest nation in South America, the biggest economy in Latin America, and one that has been predicted to become a real powerhouse in years ahead. But when examined in-depth, the stats shows just how influential Brazil is, compared to other regional nations.
With a population of around 210 million, Brazil holds over four times the population of the region’s second largest nation, Colombia. While recent years have seen the nation’s economy embattled — slipping back from its record ranking that overtook the UK as the 6th largest nation in 2014 — it still remains in the top 10.
Brazil’s nominal GDP of US$ 1,909,386 million far outpaces the three other Latin American nations in the top 50: Mexico at 15th place (US$ 1,199,264 million), Colombia at 39th (US$ 336,940 million) and Chile at 42nd (US$ 299,887 million).
Brazil at Home
We’ve previously detailed at STAR Businessweek the tremendous growth Brazil has seen since 2000, alongside its geopolitical weight. The power of Brazil locally and globally is why it’s no overstatement to say that the new direction President Bolsonaro seeks, could drive widespread change, not just in his nation, but throughout Latin America, both economically and within the wider dynamics of the region.The latter is especially so given Bolsonaro’s already storied ability to generate controversy. Often compared to US President Donald Trump while running his election campaign, like the current occupant of the White House, Bolsonaro’s campaign clearly struck a chord with Brazilian voters sick of ‘business as usual’ in politics, and wanting a new beginning.
Trump gave voice to American frustration that, for many decades, megacities on the East and West Coast had gone from strength to strength while so many heartland towns were declining. In a similar vein. the formerly obscure Bolsonaro had a rapid rise to presidential candidate, doing so with a promise to be a clean break from the elites who had presided over Brazil’s worst recession in 100 years, and the biggest corruption scandal in the country’s history in Operação Lava Jato. All the while the unemployment rate remained at a painful 12 per cent.
Nonetheless, Bolsonaro’s indications that he might not accept the outcome if he didn’t win the democratic election, fond reminisencces about the era in which Brazil was under dictatorial rule, and his promise to preside over a militarisation of the police force, have political observers domestically and internationally wondering what exactly he envisions as democracy in Brazil.
A New Brazil in the Region
By virtue of the nation’s power, any president of Brazil will always have the capacity to push buttons and see their voice heard throughout Latin America. But Bolsonaro’s rapid rise and bold promises could also see him push for a swift change in the region’s identity. This at a time shortly after Mexican voters elected the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador as president, setting up a sharp distinction in outlook between the region’s two biggest nations.
Bolsonaro’s ascent will be welcome news to those in Washington DC who desire another regional ally to keep pressure on the Venezuelan and Cuban governments.
For Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, as leaders of the other BRICS nations in Beijing and Moscow, Bolsonaro’s apparent disinterest in being a voice for democracy means he will potentially be a pleasing new addition to the BRICS negotiating table. For the same reasons, the democratic leaders of India and South Africa will surely look upon Bolsonaro’s ascent with some uncertainty.
Finding Common Ground in the Caribbean
On paper, the reality appears clear-cut: this new Brazilian president will struggle to find common ground with government leaders in Saint Lucia and around the region when it comes to many shared issues. Before he took office, environmentalists were fearing the prospect of a Bolsonaro presidency, especially due to his indication that he would withdraw Brazil from the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, and surrounding his intentions for the Amazon.
Critics would say that the Brazilian government’s poor management of the Amazon has been a enduring issue, and certainly Bolsonaro isn’t set to improve it, campaigning to roll back on previous protections that would increase tree felling and harvesting in the rainforest. Economically, Bolsonaro is something of a paradox, wanting greater protectionism for Brazil’s banana industry, while formulating bold policy with his pro-free market team on big plans for pension reform. His election drew new interest from global markets, but some hesitation to accept this new restart for Brazil, which has had four presidents in the past decade.
Though pension reform is a ‘sacred cow’ for Brazil, being enshrined in the (nation’s most recent) 1988 Constitution, it also saw the government drive up a US$ 61.3 billion deficit in 2017 by meeting its obligations under the existing plan. Though consensus on what reforms are needed is elusive, observers can all fairly agree that some change is essential.
It’s here that Bolsonaro’s greatest impact on the Caribbean could be seen. Like most politicians, the odds are strong that many of the promises he made to win office will not be fulfilled before the end of his term, or ultimately at all. Yet for many nations regionally dealing with an aging population, and confronting hard questions about maintaining social services while balancing a budget, Bolsonaro’s first term promises to be a case study in a Latin American nation turning sharply for a new direction.
Should he succeed in restarting Brazil’s economy without flirting with authoritarianism, many past sins could be forgiven; just as Brazilians will retain a long memory if he hasn’t delivered when a new election arrives in 2022. The Embassy of Brazil in Saint Lucia was contacted in relation to this story but indicated, “The Embassy is not able to make a statement on the subject at this time,” on President Bolsonaro’s key priorities concerning engagement with Saint Lucia and the region.
