Much media coverage of the crisis in Venezuela talks of a certain inevitability surrounding the rule of current President Nicolás Maduro. There are many reasons this is the case: Maduro has faced widespread condemnation internationally; he is in a power-struggle with presidential rival Juan Guaidó for the claim of being the nation’s legitimate leader; and by many measures Venezuela has an economy and society in meltdown. The exodus of over 4 million Venezuelans over the past year alone evidences the dire situation.
Despite this, Maduro and his allies have hung on. Any comprehensive coverage of this turbulent chapter must consider what is allowing Maduro to endure, and which factors might see his regime sustain, and even consolidate, its grip on power in the country.
A Leader Deposed in Washington
News out of Washington earlier this month that John Bolton would cease his role as National Security Advisor of the United States could be viewed as a landmark moment in relation to Venezuela. Bolton has acquired a reputation in the US as a ‘hawk’, often to the disdain of many in the international community. He is forever ready to preference a military campaign as the solution to whatever current woe comes before him. His approach to diplomacy has been like a bull in a china shop and his controversial career saw him serve as a US Ambassador to the UN under the George W. Bush administration, despite being a longstanding and strong critic of the UN as an organisation.
President Donald Trump’s appointment of Bolton in March 2018 was met with delight by neoconservatives in the US, but considerable anxiety within other quarters of American political life, and elsewhere in the world. Accordingly, many in Caracas would have breathed a sigh of relief on learning that Trump had fired Bolton on September 10.
The Trump administration is nothing if not unpredictable (this doesn’t just apply to policy making but personnel too, with the administration having seen over two dozen senior officials leave, the highest turnover among the past five presidencies) but the odds were small of Bolton’s replacement having even stronger interventionist tendencies. However, comments in the days following Bolton’s firing, when Trump indicated it was a result of Bolton ‘holding me [Trump] back’ on Venezuela and other flashpoints, are sure to have sent a chill down the spine of any Maduro loyalist. Likewise, there will be concern on the part of anyone dubious that a US-led ‘boots on the ground’ approach to resolving the Venezuelan crisis would do anything but inflame it, and kick off a new episode in US foreign policy that could repeat many of the mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Foundations of Maduro’s Rule
Supporters of Maduro view him in the same way as many Cubans did the Castro brothers: a strongman whose strength can be taxing on the population, but also a figure who resists the influence of foreign powers and global corporations on the nation. As opposed to the more measured tone of former President Barack Obama, President Trump’s fiery rhetoric has also bolstered Maduro’s calls to rally behind him in the national interest.
Many leaders of Latin American countries have forged long careers based upon rallying against what they deem to be imperialist foes abroad. Yet the alleged close links of the Maduro regime to major drug groups, alongside the endemic corruption that has seen elites park their dirty money offshore, means that behind the romantic language of revolutionaries and the veneer of independence, this is a hierarchy surviving not only thanks to people power, but likely from ill-gotten gains as well.
The forces that underwrite Maduro’s government are a key reason why attempts at his removal have proven so difficult for adversaries. They also provide some insight into why, despite the strength of opposition within the international community, Maduro has been unyielding. As Mildred Camero, a former head of the Venezuelan anti-drug commission has indicated prior, observers have wrongly perceived Venezuela’s ruling party as a conventional dictatorship, when in reality it’s a narco-cartel operating the state’s functions.
Then there has been the support that Maduro enjoys among regular Venezuelans. Just as Raul Castro served as a political and spiritual successor to his brother Fidel in Cuba, Maduro has taken the mantle from Hugo Chavez and maintained his predecessor’s kinship with many of the poorest Venezuelans, boosted by the introduction of highly-subsidised food aid known as CLAP boxes.
Maduro’s reign is obviously not proving universally popular. Yet his supporter base paints a more complicated picture than many abroad would initially perceive. It’s a mix of supremely affluent drug barons right alongside vulnerable citizens, laced with the legacy of Hugo Chavez that hangs over him and continues to impact national life.
Democratically Speaking
For Maduro and his supporters, the US presidential election next year presents a tantalising prospect: the election of a Democratic Party president who is Trump-like in their willingness to break the mould in foreign policy; one who would not only reduce Washington’s pressuring of Caracas, but perhaps even engage in a complete 180. Such an occurrence may seem unlikely but it becomes more plausible when recognising that the Trump administration has broken norms of US policy in seeing the White House pursue a close embrace of Russia, North Korea and other traditional rivals. What’s more, while it’s unclear who the candidate will be, the Democratic Party as a whole has embraced the war-weary sentiment of the American public, who have no wish to see another conflict that could mean decades of blood and treasure spilled, as in Afghanistan and Iraq.
This opens the door to a change of approach to Venezuela. Even if it’s unimaginable that another US president would be quite like Trump in personal demeanour, it’s not impossible that they would offer up a huge but unexpected switch, just as the last Democratic president, Barack Obama, did when he abandoned decades of longstanding policy in order to pursue warmer relations with Cuba and Iran.
A Leader Content to Stand in the Shadows
Those who look upon the Maduro regime with anguish over its woeful record on democracy and human rights cannot fathom a future where Maduro consolidates his power and reigns for years to come. So far though, he has persisted, and opposition forces domestically, alongside their supporters internationally, have been unable to pressure his resignation or a change of course to a more promising direction.
Maduro’s regime has been the beneficiary of political turbulence within the international community that was unimaginable just a few years ago. This includes the US-China trade war, Brexit, the upheaval in Hong Kong, and even flare-ups of old conflicts, as between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir territory. It is possible that the next year could see swift resolutions (or at least de-escalations) to many of these issues. If so, Maduro could expect greater attention on Venezuela, and international pressure mounting. Looking at it from the other side, however, Maduro and his allies can surely identify many events that could turn the situation in their favour and help them sustain their rule for a longer period.
For those who hope for a more democratic and liberal Venezuela that entices citizens to return home, and foreigners to visit once again, the year ahead could see the most crucial factors in determining Venezuela’s future decided not within the nation itself, but in the conduct of voters abroad in their own nations’ domestic affairs.
