Over the past year the relationship between Dominica and the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) has begun a new chapter. Following the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations in 2004, national leaders in Beijing and Roseau have wasted little time in forging stronger ties.
For China, this dynamic with Dominica is one among many new relationships it has cultivated in recent times, but for Dominica it has the potential to be a true game-changer. That’s why it is essential for anyone with an interest in Dominican affairs and the nation of 74,000 to understand what this new era means for the island’s economy and future.
Prior to the present chapter in the relationship, it’s understood that Beijing promised Dominican leaders a new future after the formal establishment of diplomatic relations; one that would provide Roseau with a mainline to China’s economic power and ongoing growth. A landmark moment came in October 2018 when the two nations signed an economic and technical agreement that would drive development of agriculture, education and health, among other fields. As a nation with an annual GDP of just over US$ 500mn, an injection of US$ 44mn means a substantial uptick in resources.
This marks the relationship between the two nations as the closest it has been in years, but the groundwork for its future success had been laid previously. In April 2012 Dominica opened the rehabilitated Edward Oliver Leblanc Highway, a road revamped thanks to millions of dollars injected from Beijing. At the opening ceremony, Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit commended the work of the China Railway 17 Group which was behind the infrastructure upgrade.
Completion of this project serves as a representation of the successful partnerships that can be forged between these two nations. Put simply, the prior experience they have in partnering with one another will be a cornerstone for the future.
A Chinese embassy has been in operation in Dominica since September 2018 so one can expect the Chinese government’s voice to be increasingly heard in the national conversation surrounding future major projects in Dominica.
For Beijing, the aspiration to build a stronger partnership with Dominica is reflective of many priorities. The first is to continue building its economic links abroad, amidst some challenging domestic conditions at home. For although China is still growing (and many nations would deem the growth enviable), there has been a slowdown in recent times.
While Dominica can look forward to new economic benefits as a result of this engagement with China, it will not come without challenge. Many smaller nations in the Caribbean and around the world have grown their economic ties with Beijing in recent years, but misgivings remain surrounding whether these new relationships are truly ones of mutual benefit, or more akin to aid in exchange for influence.
In turn, anyone who subscribes to the realist ideas of great power politics would suggest it is no surprise that the US has objections to its presumptive rival’s growing influence throughout the region. Undoubtedly, nations in the Caribbean who move closer to China may increasingly find themselves at a distance from Washington, especially in the Trump era.
For Roseau, the challenge now is to ensure that this partnership with China isn’t taken for granted. While it could deliver substantial growth‚ it could also make Dominica more vulnerable should the island increasingly rely on it economically and then find that Beijing has had a change of priority in foreign affairs. So, ongoing diversification of the economy is surely a key goal for Roseau, going forward.
Dominica was among the hardest-hit nations in 2017 by Hurricane Maria’s destruction that made landfall on September 18. Not only was the damage immense, but it was varied, destroying properties, lines of communication, polluting drinking water and, for a time, leaving Dominica totally isolated from its neighbours. Since then, the work of Dominicans at home, alongside the Caribbean family and people of good beyond the region, has driven an admirable recovery effort.
Any recovery such as this is sure to be long and painful but new economic growth is a way to speed recovery. In recent months the EU blacklist on Dominica has been lifted, and work has progressed on its new international airport, so there is optimism for the nation’s economy. Many eyes are sure to observe the extent to which this new partnership will China can help drive new growth.
