A new year and decade begins following the immense growth of citizenship by investment programmes over the past few years, both in terms of the CIPs available, and the uptake of them by interested parties; so too, the closely related and complementary offerings such as residency by investment programmes. Among the current CIP-offering nations, recent times have seen those that have maintained a well-established lead continue it, just as some countries have seen the popularity of their CIPs surge due to structural reforms and other changes. For Caribbean nations looking to identify the best path for their own CIPs in future, an appreciation of what has underwritten the demand for the world’s most popular programmes is essential.
USA
The Land of the Free has long enjoyed a healthy lead as the most popular destination for those with the desire and money to make a new life abroad. That said, lately it has been a difficult chapter for the EB-5 visa and investment migration agents, owing to the uncertainty surrounding the EB-5’s future; with recent months seeing it granted extensions in Washington DC to prevent its expiration, amidst a political scandal and accusations of corruption in the programme.
In December 2018 it was reported that waiting times had ballooned to as long as 15 years, with anxiety among applicants further heightened surrounding the lack of programme guidelines about what happens to money invested by applicants during that time. Nonetheless, with as many as 10,000 EB-5 visas granted a year since 1990, and the previous minimum investment of US$500,000 revised to US$900,000 earlier this year, the immense profitability of this visa for the US has bolstered supporters’ calls for its continuance.
UK
Brexit woes notwithstanding, UK residency remains extremely desirable globally to those with deep pockets.
Following the high profile poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in 2018, the UK government pursued a clampdown on the nation’s investment migration visa. It didn’t deter demand, however, with the first half of 2019 seeing a rise in applications that require at least a £2 million outlay of funds, in return allowing an approved applicant the right to reside and work in the UK for five years, and apply to settle after that. 255 people were approved for a tier-1 visa in the first half of 2019 alone.
Portugal
The Portuguese golden visa is not small change, with the starting price requiring a Euro 350,000 real estate investment. Nevertheless, it has proven enticing for citizens of the world seeking residency in an EU member state, as well as those intent on leaving behind a life elsewhere.
Portugal has recently been the beneficiary of a substantial uptick in demand from Brazilians, owing to the shared language, an embattled economy in Latin America’s largest nation, and even some expats choosing to exile themselves in the era of controversial President Jair Bolsonaro. Growing interest has not only been consistent from the Latin American nation but, at times, record-breaking, with July of 2018 seeing a 16-month record high in the number of applications made, and the programme forecast to make a total of Euro 806 million by the end of 2019.
As of September 2019 almost 8,000 residence permits had been issued via the national scheme, and it injected a total of around US$4.95bn into the nation between 2012 and 2019.
Quebec
Although intake is currently paused until mid-2020, the Quebec Immigrant Investor Programme is among the most popular in the world, with a backlog of almost 20,000 applications cited as the reason for the suspension in October 2019.
Unusually for an investment migration programme, Canada’s maintains a region-specific requirement. As well as having to prove a legally-acquired personal net worth of CA$2mn, and being prepared to invest CA$1.2mn, an applicant must “intend to settle in the province of Quebec”. This, distinct from other golden visas which commonly allow an approved applicant to live wherever they wish in their new nation’s borders.
Though this pause will see a divergent result in the normal trend, it is known that between 2001 and 2016 the programme generated in excess of CA$700mn via the investment visas.
Turkey
In September of 2018 Turkey announced it would reduce the minimum cost of its investment migration visa from US$1mn to US$250,000. The result saw the real estate market record a 150% increase in foreign buyer sales by the end of 2018, and forecasts for the end of 2019 were that foreign-buyer sales would lift from US$4bn to US$10bn. During this period Turkey has rapidly ascended to being among the most popular of CIPs in its region.
St Kitts and Nevis
As a pioneer of the CIP, commencing back in the 1980s, it is no surprise that this Caribbean nation has carved out its own unique niche in the market and, accordingly, has done a strong trade in investment-for-passport transactions. Although the performance of the country’s CIP industry has gone through its ups and downs – with its CIP no stranger to multiple major scandals – it is understood that the nation today holds over 16,500 economic citizens, with a current starting price of US$150,000 for an individual CIP. With an estimated population of around 53,000, it is clear that this CIP has fundamentally reshaped the nation’s population and the government’s treasuries year by year.
Assessing Local Value in the Global Market
This list illustrates how some CIPs (and RBIs) have established a strong record of ongoing demand. However, as the experience of nations like Turkey shows, a rethink of an offering and subsequent alteration of an existing programme can result in an immense uptick in interest. In this new year, as new CIPs continue to come onstream, nations with underperforming CIPs have a dual incentive to pursue such changes: to drive fresh demand and protect against major damage to their reputational integrity.
