When Boris Johnson became the UK’s prime minister in July he vowed that the country would leave the EU by October 31, ‘do or die’. Despite many twists and turns in the months since, it’s now clear that the commitment won’t be kept. It’s the latest chapter in a series of deadlines missed on the UK’s path to leaving the EU. After failures by UK lawmakers to pass a Brexit Bill, another extension was obtained with the EU, and a national election called.
The new Brexit date is tentatively January 31, 2020 if the Bill is passed, but it remains unclear whether the journey to this deadline will play out any differently from all the others prior. What is certain is that upon Brexit occurring there will be implications for foreign students from the Caribbean who seek to pursue higher education in the UK. In the interim, the ongoing turmoil of a looming Brexit is having a damaging impact. Even if an October 31 Brexit is not to be, now is a good time to consider this issue in context.
UK Education by the Numbers
The UK currently has around 460,000 foreign students studying within its borders, generating US$ 25bn annually. For many in the Caribbean, the UK has long been an attractive destination for study given the shared political links, in complement to the family heritage and other connections many students from the region hold.
Foreign students are also a growing demographic generally. The UK Higher Education International Unit counted 2,071,963 foreign students worldwide enrolled outside their country of citizenship in the year 2000. By 2011 that number had more than doubled to 4,265,579. The rising personal wealth and economic power of rapidly growing nations in Asia ensures that the opportunity for international study outside a university student’s nation of origin will continue to grow in years ahead. Brexit has delivered some good news for such students as the UK government looks to a post-EU existence, with the announcement in September of a two-year post-work study visa. This will offer successful applicants who have studied in the UK the opportunity to remain for two years after graduation while they look for work and start their careers. It also promises to be something of a stopgap for the UK government as it braces for the likelihood of a brain drain of EU talent post-Brexit.
Although this new visa will entice some students, the prospect of Brexit as a whole deters others. According to a study by higher education company QS, one in five prospective international students would be put off studying in the EU if Brexit occurs, just as one third would be more likely to consider the UK for study if it does not.
Other Options Abroad
Unlike professionals who may look to the UK and dream of working there ‘one day’ with an indefinite fixed date that could occur anytime in adulthood when the stars align, most students considering university immediately following high school don’t have the desire or chance to simply sit back and wait year after year until the Brexit issue is concluded. So, if not the UK, where may these students look to study?
North America has always been popular. So too Latin America, with nations like Brazil where, in 2017, five of the region’s top ten universities were located, according to the Times Higher Education Latin American University Ranking. Increasingly, nations in the Asian region are also fostering closer ties, with Latin America now the fastest growing source market for foreign university students in Australia.
Higher education institutions don’t exist simply to grant credentials, but also to advance research and cultural ties, and drive innovation and new commercial opportunities. For an institution like the University of Leicester, which in 2015-16 played host to 18 students from the Caribbean, or the University of Southampton which played host to 13 students from Trinidad and Tobago during 2016-17, the contribution they can make to academic and student life from a national and regional perspective is important. Any diminishment of their relatively small numbers can do a disservice to their communities internationally, as well as see them and others at UK universities miss out on invaluable cultural engagement and exchange.
So even if other nations and regions benefit from additional demand, owing to a diminished interest in British study, ultimately all have an interest in seeing the UK performing well within this sector internationally. In the end though, action here all comes down to London and Brussels.
An Actual Exit of the Brexit Era?
Whatever happens going forward, recent years of British politics will surely be looked on by history as something akin to the ‘Lost Years’ that Japan has experienced since the early 1990s. It is estimated that between 2016 and 2018 the UK lost US$ 30bn, a sum in excess of the budgetary contributions it has been making to the EU that Brexiters hoped to reclaim.
Now there is an election set for December 12, 2019 with Britons hoping it will break the stalemate. Polls at the time of writing suggest the Johnson government will win with a large majority, but polls have been wrong before – they were for the Brexit vote.
The risk is real that the election will deliver ‘more of the same’. If that’s the case, the long-term prospects of work and study post-Brexit for members of the Caribbean family could be promising, but the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit will do no favours meantime to students near or far.
